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OCTOBER 28,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET: 

THE DEBATE – Sean Hannity said it best.  It's hard to know who won last night's Republican debate, but it's easy to know who lost – the media.  The disgraceful behavior of CNBC "journalists" is the talk of the internet.  Rude, "gotcha" questions seemed to dominate.  It was a journalistic assault on conservatives.  Several of the candidates, Ted Cruz most eloquently, protested the questioners' gross behavior.  Republican National Chairman Reince Priebus said, “While I was proud of our candidates and the way they handled tonight’s debate, the performance by the CNBC moderators was extremely disappointing and did a disservice to their network, our candidates, and voters."  I fully agree.  The rules must be changed to insure a fair, intelligent debate.  There may have to be a panel of respected journalists who can screen the questions beforehand to make sure the children don't mess things up.

THE RESULT – Very hard to say because voters this year seem to be reacting differently in some cases than they normally do.  Much praise is being given to Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and Carly Fiorina.  Donald Trump was Donald Trump.  He neither helped nor hurt himself, but certainly didn't break out.  Ben Carson is never spectacular in debate, but his quiet, dignified manner is his calling card.  You can't dislike him.  He oozes decency.  We'll have to wait for the serious polling to see if anything has changed.  But again, as we have pointed out, the sheer number of candidates onstage is too much for the audience to absorb.  The Republicans aren't being helped by the mob scene.  Some candidates should be encouraged to take vacations.

BACK TO REALITY – There was a policeman's funeral in New York yesterday.  From the New York Post:   An emotional Police Commissioner Bill Bratton bestowed a gold detective’s shield on NYPD Officer Randolph Holder at his funeral in Queens on Wednesday — with the same badge number as the dead cop’s former-policeman father, No. 9657.  “He is a hero,’’ said Bratton, his voice breaking before handing a box with the shield to Holder’s dad from the altar of the Greater Allen A.M.E. Cathedral of New York in Jamaica...A sea of grief washed over the city as an estimated 10,000 of the city’s Finest and family and friends of Holder flocked to the service.  The officer was shot dead as he pursued a perpetrator.  The officer was black, and was the son of an officer.  It would have been a gracious gesture had the president of the United States, who has done his share of police bashing, attended the funeral to demonstrate that this black life mattered also.  He didn't even send a wreath.

October 28, 2015       Permalink

APPEASEMENT, THE SEQUEL – AT 9:54 A.M. ET:  Why are we not shocked?  During the debate over the Iran nuclear deal, we were assured by the administration that it would hold the line against Iran – no appeasement – despite the deal.  Yeah, sure.  This is the age of Obama.   Appeasement, Act II, has begun.  They betrayed us again.  From The Wall Street Journal:   

WASHINGTON—Iran will be invited to participate in international talks on the Syrian crisis Friday in Vienna, U.S. officials said, in a major shift in the Obama administration’s approach to ending more than four years of fighting in the country.

The White House on Tuesday also gave its strongest statement yet that it was willing to let President Bashar al-Assad remain in office and oversee a political transition in Syria, though he would eventually have to go.

One concession after another.  The way of Obama.  The sure way to eventual loss and a wider conflict.

This recent tack toward the Syrian dictator marks a significant U-turn from earlier U.S. demands that Mr. Assad leave office, and together with the shift on Iran, highlights the increased leverage of Russia and Iran after they jointly launched military operations in defense of Mr. Assad last month.

Another famous Obama triumph. 

“We have very different views, and our coalition partners do, from the Syrian government, the Russians and the Iranians,” Susan Rice, President Barack Obama’s national-security adviser, said at an event at Yale University. “But I think there is the potential for an arrangement to be agreed wherein this transition begins, perhaps with Assad still in power, but it doesn’t end with him in power.”

The U.S. and its Arab allies previously blocked Tehran from participating in United Nations-backed talks on Syria, because of Tehran’s deep military and financial support for Mr. Assad. Iran has repeatedly rejected U.S. demands that it commit to supporting a political transition in Damascus that would end the Syrian leader’s 15-year rule.

COMMENT:  Same pattern as in the Iran nuclear talks.  Tough statement at first, then hedging, then cave-in.  And other nations watch in dismay as the United States squanders its position.

What will Hillary say about all this?  Probably very little.  And the press won't notice.

October 28, 2015       Permalink

THE "LIKE" FACTOR – AT 8:58 A.M. ET:  Let's face it.  We want to like our president.  We don't always get the chance, but we really do.  So the likability factor is regularly tested by pollsters.  Here are the latest results on the GOP side, via Andrew Malcolm at IBD: 

The winner of tonight's Republican debate in Colorado is TBD.

But already we know who is the most likable candidate. And who is enjoying a surge in polls to become the new front-runner. And -- this is not brain surgery, people -- they are one in the same: Ben Carson.

Gallup has released a new survey of more than 3,100 Republican-thinking adults. Its number-crunchers calculated the favorables and unfavorables of nine of the top GOP candidates and subtracted the bad from the good to come up with a Net Favorable rating.

Debates have played a significant role shaping the Republican field this cycle. Going into tonight's word-fest, Carson had the biggest plus-side, 68, and the smallest negative side, 8, for a Net Favorable of 60.

His nearest competitors were Marco Rubio (+40 based on 55 positive and 15 negative)) and Carly Fiorina (+33 based on 46 positive and 13 negative).

Who do you think has the worst Net Favorables? Nope, not Trump, although he has the worst negatives. It's Ohio's John Kasich with 26 positive and 18 negative for a Net Favorable of eight.
Trump came in only sixth place. He had the second largest favorables at 58. But he also had the largest unfavorables of 34 for a Net Favorable of only 24. That's ahead of Jeb Bush's Net Favorable of 19 (+50 and -31) and Chris Christie's 10 (+40 and -30).

COMMENT:  Carly's numbers contradict her nosedive in the polls, and I can't explain that.  As noted in our first post this morning, John Kasich gets good press reviews and is a favorite of the pros, but clearly hasn't made a public impact. 

As we always stress, a poll is just a snapshot in time.  Polls differ, and the same polling company may come up with different results even a week from now.  Still, it's hard to argue with Ben Carson's rise.  People just like him.  Do they like his policies, his pronouncements?  I'm not sure of that at all.  If he continues his rise, scrutiny will follow, and his statements will be more carefully examined.

October 28, 2015       Permalink

SHOWDOWN – AT 8:28 A.M. ET:  The next Republican presidential debate will be tonight at 8 p.m. ET, on CNBC, from Boulder, Colorado.  It will be moderated by the ultra-liberal journalist John Harwood, which raises questions about the sanity of the GOP in agreeing to it. 

This is a major showdown.  The race is far enough along for the voters to draw some conclusions.  Trump is the frontrunner.  Even though a new national poll show Ben Carson ahead, Trump continues to lead in most of the all-important state contests, where convention delegates are actually awarded.

So, everyone will be shooting at Trump, trying to bring him down and framing him as a pseudo-Republican who is little more than a reality-show performer.  At the same time, candidates are aware that Carson can indeed forge ahead, and they will do nothing to praise him.

The ones who must perform are Jeb Bush, who has been a major disappointment; Marco Rubio, who many believe has the best chance of defeating Hillary Clinton, if only he can be nominated; and Carly Fiorina, who went from brilliant debate performer – the best debater on the stage – only to experience a nosedive in the polls.  The reason for the nosedive is unclear, but I suspect that many voters feel she is cold and mechanical. 

Most of the other candidates should probably withdraw from the race after tonight, but ego may keep them going.  Chris Christie, once the great hope, is not catching on.  Ted Cruz, probably the most brilliant of all the candidates, and potentially a great president, is probably not the right candidate for this year – a bit rough around the edges.  Of the second-tier candidates, Governor John Kasich of Ohio gets the best press, and the best reviews from the pros.  He hasn't caught on, but may wind up in the second spot on the ticket.

Lots of fireworks expected tonight.  At least the Republicans have a contest, not a coronation.

October 28,  2015      Permalink

OCTOBER 27,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:52 P.M. ET: 

THE NERVE – From the Washington Free Beacon:   Iran is hosting a three-day conference this week focusing on “police brutality against blacks in America,” according to the event announcement.  Foreign Desk reported that the event’s organizer, Nader Talebzadeh, told an Iranian news outlet that he had extended invitations to the conference to 30 “anti-Israel blacks” from the United States. He said that the conference, beginning Monday, would feature “human rights defenders” and “social activists.”  “Blacks in America are the only group who utilize their right to protest, and Iran is the perfect place to host them and to initiate a direct relationship with this segment of the American population,” Talebzadeh said.  “This will be the start of a relationship based on culture, diplomacy, and revolution. We hope to serve as an international example,” Talebzadeh explained, noting that the treatment of African Americans at the hands of police is important to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.  What a farce.  This is one of the most brutal regimes in the world, and they're judging us.  I'd love to see the "representatives" from the United States.  I'll take names.

ANOTHER GENIUS HEARD FROM – From Townhall.com:  The same day the Center for Medical Progress released its 11th video showing Planned Parenthood doctors discussing the harvesting of fetal body parts, progressive actress Lena Dunham announced in her newsletter that she will be dressing up as an abortionist for Halloween.  “Still, I want to be accepted and to WIN BIG! And this year, I think I may have finally nailed it,” Dunham wrote in her daily email newsletter. “I’m going as something newsy, sexy, and cool: a Planned Parenthood doctor!”  Ms. Dunham, although an actress of above-average ability, is a moral moron, and has the intellectual maturity of a 12-year-old.

NOT ALL BAD FOR DONALD – Despite a stunning poll showing Ben Carson taking the lead nationally in the GOP presidential sweepstakes, Donald Trump continues to gain in some state races.  From theconservativetreehouse.com:   The latest PPP Poll from North Carolina shows Donald Trump, with 31%, extending his lead in the state. Ben Carson comes in second with 23% and Carly Fiorina has collapsed from last month, landing at 6%, with less than half her previous favorability and double the unfavorability. Candidate Jeb Bush also takes a severe step backwards.  There's a GOP debate tomorrow (Wednesday) that could prove dramatically important in sharpening the public's perception of the candidates.  I hope the race shakes out to about five candidates before the next debate.  Then the focusing will really start.  The election is a bit more than a year away.  Plenty of time for change.

October 27, 2015       Permalink 

THERE IS NO BIAS IN THE ACADEMIC WORLD (CHOKE) – AT 10:03 A.M. ET:  No, not much.  Campus Reform, a great website, nails the facts, which are indisputable:

Only one undergraduate professor from the top 50 liberal arts colleges has donated to a Republican presidential candidate in the current election cycle.

According to FEC third quarter reports released October 16, 47 professors at the top 50 liberal arts colleges in the country, as ranked by U.S. News & World Report, have given to presidential campaigns. Of those 47 professors, Hamilton College History Professor Robert Paquette was the sole donor to a Republican candidate, giving $150 to Carly Fiorina’s campaign.

The remaining 99.51 percent went to Democrat candidates Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. The 46 other professors collectively donated $20,875 to Hillary Clinton and $8,417 to Bernie Sanders. Professors donating to Clinton have given an average of $1,043.75. Those giving to Sanders donated an average of $323.73.

"I do believe these numbers give an accurate representation of the political leanings of faculty on most college campuses," Paquette wrote in an e-mail to Campus Reform, "especially allegedly elite liberal arts colleges like Hamilton College," where he claims to be the "only out-of-closet conservative in a faculty of 200."

After 35 years of experience in higher education, Paquette believes that the business "has become a racket monopolized by the academic left."

Paquette argues that with cover from "spineless or sympathetic" administrators, leftist faculty are able to keep their campuses liberal. Conservatives like himself can be prohibited from participating in searches for their own department and large endowment funds are "lavished on faculty activists and their programmatic agendas.”

Paquette says that trustees know about the problem but "[prefer] not to hear, see, or speak any evil to protect the elite ‘brand’ of the college."

COMMENT:  And that's part of the problem – trustees (and alumni) who only want to preserve the prestige of the degree.  But more and more people are finding out the truth about American higher education, and what it's become.  The trouble is, the academic establishment is entrenched, and perpetuates itself.  We need, first of all, a selective cutoff of federal aid – stop feeding the beast.  We need a revolt by parents paying the tuition.  We need exposure of the scandal by the media (not much chance), and we need revulsion by students who'll realize they're being used.

Tough order.  Maybe generational change will help.  But the bias problem can only be solved in the long term, if at all.

October 27, 2015       Permalink

COPS IN DANGER – AT 9:20 A.M. ET:  It is a new kind of domestic terrorism, directed at cops, and the White House is doing nothing to stop it.  Now there is an FBI warning of a plot that may be carried out this week.  From the New York Post: 

The FBI released an alert Monday warning the NYPD and police departments nationwide of a potentially dangerous anarchist group that says it plans to ambush cops on Halloween.

The extremist group – known as the National Liberation Militia – has proposed a “Halloween Revolt” that encourages supporters to cause a disturbance to attract police and then viciously attack them, the FBI said.

The group has recommended that members wear typical Halloween masks and use weapons such as bricks, bottles and firearms, according to the release.

The NYPD Intelligence Bureau is monitoring the threat, and there is no known link between the threat and New York City law enforcement specifically, the FBI said.

COMMENT:  The FBI bulletin is not surprising.   And the notion of luring police to a scene has been mentioned before.  The president should be out there publicly saying that he will order whatever forces are necessary to counter attacks on law enforcement.  He could, for example, federalize National Guard MP units to augment police.  Or even use regular troops, as was done in Little Rock in 1957 and in other places in the 1960s.  But Obama simply makes meely-mouthed boilerplate denunciations of violence.  Not a leader.  Not a great man.

October 27, 2015       Permalink

JEB'S CRISIS – AT 8:47 A.M. ET:   And it's very real.  He can't seem to gain traction in the polls, and he's proved to be an uninspiring candidate.  A recent outburst reveals a deeply frustrated man, who's living in the shadow of a father and brother, both of whom made it to the presidency.  From Byron York at the Washington Examiner: 

"I just cringed," said one member of Jeb Bush's extended circle of advisers when asked his reaction to Bush's recent mini-tantrum on the state of the Republican presidential race. "Every politician, at some point, and sometimes justifiably, is pissed off at the voters. But you can't display your frustration with the public."

That's what Bush did, thrusting into public view the deep frustration that has been building as his once-mighty campaign slipped behind not only Donald Trump but other GOP rivals as well.

"If this election is about how we're going to fight to get nothing done, then I don't want to have any part of it," Bush told a Republican gathering in South Carolina Saturday. "I've got a lot of really cool things I could do other than sit around and be miserable, listening to people demonize me and feeling compelled to demonize me. That is a joke. Elect Trump if you want that."

The short version: I don't need this. The other guy's a clown, but if that's what you want, vote for him. I've got better things to do.

It's probably an understatement to say voters don't like such talk. "It's a non-winning message," said the adviser.

COMMENT:  There's a lot of political buzz to the effect that the Bush campaign is completely retooling, but it may be too late.  His name is Bush.  He's not a newcomer.  He just hasn't made an impression, and it's really too bad.  He was a fine, thoughtful governor of Florida.

The fact that Ben Carson has overtaken Trump in a new national poll (see post below) should teach Bush that it can be done.   The message Jeb is sending out, though, signals capitulation, not victory, and Americans love winners.

October 27, 2015       Permalink

YIKES-A-ROOTIE – AT 8:29 A.M. ET:  Ben Carson now leads Donald Trump nationally in the new New York Times/CBS poll.  Is the Trump boom over?  From The New York Times: 

Ben Carson has taken a narrow lead nationally in the Republican presidential campaign, dislodging Donald J. Trump from the top spot for the first time in months, according to a New York Times/CBS News survey released on Tuesday.

Mr. Carson, a retired neurosurgeon, is the choice of 26 percent of Republican primary voters, the poll found, while Mr. Trump now wins support from 22 percent, although the difference lies within the margin of sampling error.

The survey is the first time that Mr. Trump has not led all candidates since The Times and CBS News began measuring presidential preferences at the end of July.

No other candidate comes close to Mr. Carson and Mr. Trump. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida received 8 percent while former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida and Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard chief executive, are each the choice of 7 percent of Republican primary voters.

Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and Gov. John R. Kasich of Ohio each received support from 4 percent of those surveyed.

COMMENT:  Are GOP voters tiring of Trump?  I certainly hope so.  The more I see and hear of the man, the more revolted I become.  His vulgarity.  His out-of-control ego.  I really don't want the White House to be renamed Trump Plaza.  I don't want the swimming pool repainted in shocking pink. 

As for Ben Carson, who doesn't like him?  I don't know if he really is right for the presidency, and I fear he'd be eaten alive by Hillary Clinton in a debate.  But the man is superbly accomplished and has fine character.  If he took the oath of office, I'd know we had decency in the White House, which we don't have now.

October 27,  2015     Permalink